Kalshi

# Kalshi Prediction Markets

Read-only integration with Kalshi's prediction market API.

## Capabilities

- **Browse markets**: List active events and markets by category - **Market analysis**: Get prices, volumes, orderbook depth - **Portfolio view**: Check positions and P&L (requires API key) - **Trade recommendations**: Find high-certainty, high-payoff opportunities

## Setup

Install dependencies: ```bash pip install requests cryptography ```

For portfolio access (RSA key signing required):

1. Go to [kalshi.com/account/profile](https://kalshi.com/account/profile) 2. Create new API key → save the **Key ID** and download the **private key** 3. Store credentials:

```bash mkdir -p ~/.kalshi mv ~/Downloads/your-key-file.txt ~/.kalshi/private_key.pem chmod 600 ~/.kalshi/private_key.pem ```

4. Create `~/.kalshi/credentials.json`: ```json { "api_key_id": "your-key-id-here", "private_key_path": "~/.kalshi/private_key.pem" } ```

Or run interactive setup: ```bash python scripts/kalshi_portfolio.py setup ```

## Scripts

### Market Data (No Auth Required)

```bash # List trending markets python scripts/kalshi_markets.py trending

# Search markets by query python scripts/kalshi_markets.py search "bitcoin"

# Get specific market details python scripts/kalshi_markets.py market TICKER

# Find high-value opportunities python scripts/kalshi_markets.py opportunities ```

### Portfolio (Auth Required)

```bash # View positions python scripts/kalshi_portfolio.py positions

# View balance python scripts/kalshi_portfolio.py balance

# Trade history python scripts/kalshi_portfolio.py history ```

## Opportunity Analysis

The `opportunities` command identifies markets where: - **High certainty**: Price ≥85¢ YES or ≤15¢ YES (implies 85%+ confidence) - **Meaningful payoff**: Potential return ≥10% on capital - **Sufficient liquidity**: Orderbook depth supports reasonable position size

Formula: `expected_value = probability * payoff - (1 - probability) * cost`

A good opportunity has: `EV / cost > 0.1` (10%+ expected return)

## Categories

Kalshi markets span: - Politics & Elections - Economics (Fed rates, inflation, GDP) - Weather & Climate - Finance (stock prices, crypto) - Entertainment & Sports - Science & Tech

## API Reference

See `references/api.md` for endpoint details.

## Important Notes

- This skill is READ-ONLY — no trade execution - Public endpoints don't require authentication - Portfolio/balance requires API credentials - Markets settle in cents (100¢ = $1) - All times in UTC