Introduction
# Alpha Finder (Market Oracle)
Research prediction markets and find alpha using AI-powered market intelligence across Polymarket, Kalshi, and traditional sources.
## Configuration
The private key must be available via one of these methods:
**Option 1: Environment variable** ```bash export X402_PRIVATE_KEY="0x..." ```
**Option 2: Config file (Recommended)**
The script checks for `x402-config.json` in these locations (in order): 1. Current directory: `./x402-config.json` 2. Home directory: `~/.x402-config.json` ← **Recommended** 3. Working directory: `$PWD/x402-config.json`
Create the config file: ```json { "private_key": "0x1234567890abcdef..." } ```
**Example (home directory - works for any user):** ```bash echo '{"private_key": "0x..."}' > ~/.x402-config.json ```
## Usage
Run the market research script with a query about prediction markets or events:
```bash scripts/analyze.sh "<market query>" ```
The script: - Executes market intelligence research with payment handling - Costs $0.03 USDC per request (Base network) - Searches web, GitHub, Reddit, and X for comprehensive analysis - Returns AI-processed market insights and probability assessments
## Examples
**User:** "What are the odds for Bitcoin hitting $100k?" ```bash scripts/analyze.sh "Bitcoin 100k prediction market odds" ```
**User:** "Find arbitrage opportunities in election markets" ```bash scripts/analyze.sh "2024 election prediction market arbitrage" ```
**User:** "Analyze Polymarket odds on AI developments" ```bash scripts/analyze.sh "Polymarket AI development predictions" ```
**User:** "What's the market sentiment on climate policy outcomes?" ```bash scripts/analyze.sh "climate policy prediction markets Kalshi Polymarket" ```
## Capabilities - **Polymarket research** - Event analysis and odds tracking - **Kalshi market analysis** - Regulated prediction market insights - **Multi-source intelligence** - Searches web, GitHub, Reddit, and X - **Probability assessments** - AI-powered market sentiment analysis - **Arbitrage identification** - Spot inefficiencies across markets - **Event research** - Deep dive into specific prediction market events - **Historical tracking** - Compare current odds to historical patterns
## Data Sources The tool automatically searches across: - Polymarket events and odds - Kalshi regulated markets - Reddit discussions and sentiment - X/Twitter market commentary - GitHub repositories (for tech-related predictions) - Web sources for news and analysis
## Error Handling - **"Payment failed: Not enough USDC"** → Inform user to top up Base wallet with USDC - **"X402 private key missing"** → Guide user to configure private key (see Configuration above) - **Timeout errors** → The API has a 5-minute timeout; comprehensive research may take time
## Use Cases - **Trading:** Find mispriced markets and arbitrage opportunities - **Research:** Analyze market sentiment on specific events - **Due Diligence:** Verify market probabilities before betting - **Portfolio Management:** Track prediction market positions - **News Analysis:** Understand how events impact market odds